The first round of the NFL Playoffs is over, and we learned 3 things for sure - 1. Drew Brees is really good and can score a lot of points. 2. The Giants may be peaking at the perfect time. 3. Don't ever bet against God's favorite quarterback.
The second round starts this weekend, and this is when things get really interesting. The best teams are playing after a week of rest, and this weekend's winners will be just one game away from the Super Bowl. So, which teams are best equipped to make it all the way? To win the Super Bowl in today's football, there's two things a team needs - a good quarterback and a good coach. If one is just average, the other better be great. Take a look at the coach-QB combination for
the Super Bowl winners from the last 20 years. The only exception is 2000-2001 Baltimore Ravens with Brian Billick and Trent Dilfer, but they had one of the greatest defenses of all-time. But with the current rules that outlaw physical defense, having a great coach-QB combo is even more important. Still, the only team with a legitimately bad defense to win a Super Bowl in the past 20 years was the 2006-2007 Colts. So while defense alone might not win championships, you still need a solid defense to win it all.
So, let's breakdown this weekend's games by coaches, quarterbacks, and defenses to see who (if my completely un-scientific formula for winning a Super Bowl that is only loosely based on facts) should win and make a championship run.
Saints at 49ers
Coaches - Saints Sean Peyton vs. 49ers Jim Harbaugh
Peyton has already won a Super Bowl and has proven to be one of the best play-callers in the NFL. New Orleans finished the season 1st in total offense, 1st in passing offense, 6th in rushing offense, and 1st in points scored. Peyton has been through playoff battles before and knows how to maximize the talents of his veteran team. Harbaugh is in just his first year as an NFL coach, but he has been working miracles with this 49ers team. He took a team that went 6-10 last year and turned them into a 13-3 division winner all with just about a month to prepare due to the lockout. That's pretty impressive stuff. He also created an offense that was able to make career disappointment Alex Smith into a decent quarterback, no small feat. Still, this is his first NFL Playoff game.
Edge - Slight edge for the Saints
QBs - Saints Drew Brees vs. 49ers Alex Smith
While Harbaugh has done a nice job molding Smith, this is no contest. Drew Brees is one of the top 3 QBs in the league. He just broke Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season with 5,476. He's averaging over 8 yards per pass and has thrown for 46 TDs with just 14 INTS. Smith has played efficiently this season (17 TDs to just 5 INTs), but he is rarely asked to do much. He ranked 20th in passes attempted during the season, and no QB ranked behind him started every game like Smith did. Also, Drew Brees has won a Super Bowl. Alex Smith has never played in a playoff game.
Edge - Big edge Saints
Defenses - The 49ers finished 2nd in the league giving up just 14.3 points per game. The Saints finished 13th giving up 21.2. However, New Orleans finished up strong holding their final 5 opponents to 20 points or fewer before giving up 25 to the Lions last week. Not bad, but the 49ers held 7 teams to 11 points or fewer this season.
Edge - 49ers
The Pick - This game will be played outside in San Francisco, and the Saints offense is not nearly as dangerous outdoors as it is in their home dome. But, New Orleans' experience at the coach and quarterback position will be enough to overcome the 49ers superior defense. Look at it this way: Alex Smith will not lead the 49ers to more than 21 points, so for San Francisco to win they'd have to hold Drew Brees to under 21 points. Not happening.
Broncos at Patriots
Coaches - Broncos John Fox vs. Pats Bill Belichick
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| Belicheck? Evil emperor? Same thing. |
Fox did make it to the Super Bowl in 2003 and a conference championship game in 2005. But, he was beaten by Belichick in that Super Bowl, and Belichick has won 3 Super Bowls. Of course, Fox isn't nearly as evil or soul-less as Belichick either for whatever that's worth.
Edge - Pats
QBs - Broncos Tim Tebow vs. Pats Tom Brady
At the risk of getting struck by lightning, this one is easy. Brady is a much better quarterback. I shouldn't even have to back up this statement with facts, but here are a few quick ones. Brady's Pats averaged 32 points per game. With Tebow starting, Denver averaged 18 points per game. That's two touchdowns less. I'm done. Although if Brady comes down with a mysterious case of leprosy before the game, then Tebow might be better.
Edge - Pats
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| This guy is starting on defense for the Pats. |
Defense - This is the one area where the Broncos actually have an advantage. Denver has a good defense. The Pats are playing wide receiver Julian Edelman regularly on defense. He's their 3rd cornerback. He's recorded 3 times as many tackles as catches this year. They are also starting guys named Rob Ninkovich and James Ihedigbo. I also think they may have signed a Boston-area bouncer to play linebacker, but I'm not sure.
Edge - Broncos
The Pick - The Pats should win this one big. Unless, of course, some more divine intervention alters the outcome. And, at this point, I wouldn't even be surprised. I'm ready for anything when it comes to Tim Tebow. The entire Patriots team coming down with a case of boils. Boston Harbor turning into blood right before the game. A swarm of locust disrupting a last-second game-winning field goal by the Pats. Tebow parting the New England defense by just holding out his hands. Tebow multiplying 3-point field goals into 9 pointers like the fishes and loaves. I just don't know anymore. Logic says the Pats should win, but faith follows no logic.
Texans at Ravens
Coaches - Texans Gary Kubiak vs. Ravens John Harbaugh
Last week was Kubiak's first playoff game ever. But, he won, so that's good I guess. Harbaugh has made the playoffs in each of his first four seasons, but he's just 4-3. Kubiak has his team in the playoffs despite being down to his 3rd string rookie QB, playing without his best playmaker Andre Johnson, and losing his best defensive player Mario Williams. Still, the Ravens beat 7 teams with winning records this year while the Texans beat just 4.
Edge - Slight edge Ravens
QBs - Texans TJ Yates vs. Ravens Joe Flacco.
Yates is a rookie who began the year as a third string afterthought. Last week, he completed just 55% of his passes for just 159 yards. Now, he has to face the Ravens defense. Not good. But, Flacco may have actually taken a step backwards this season. He completed just 57% of his throws for just 6.6 yards per attempt, both career lows. He's also does not have a very impressive playoff resume. In fact, he sucks in the playoffs. He's thrown 4 TDs and 7 INTs in 7 career playoff games. Of course, when you look like a Sesame Street muppet, you're probably not going to be a good NFL quarterback. But, I'm still not even sure if TJ Yates knows how he could possibly be starting an NFL Playoff game.
Edge - Slight edge Ravens
Defense - Both teams have very good defenses. Baltimore's defense finished #2 in stopping the run, #4 in stopping the pass, and #3 in points allowed. Houston finished #4 in stopping the run, #3 in stopping the pass, and #4 in points allowed. Like I said, both very good. Throw in the fact that TJ Yates sucks and Joe Flacco will almost certainly crap the bed, and we have te recipe for a defensive struggle in this game. I think there's a better chance that Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, or Terrell Suggs makes a big play and scored a defensive TD than anyone on the Texans defense. Also, Yates might soil himself when he sees old Ray-Ray up to his old tricks.
Edge - Slight edge Ravens
The Pick - This should be a close game, but the Ravens are just a little bit better in every area, including in quarterback's ability to grow a unibrow and defensive star's ability to commit and get away with murder. The Ravens will win.
Giants at Packers
Coaches - Giants Tom Coughlin vs. Packers Mike McCarthy
Both coaches have won a Super Bowl. Coughlin won his by beating the undefeated Pats in 2008. McCarthy won his by beating the Steelers last year despite having roughly 37 players injured. Neither is hailed as a genius, but both are solid quality coaches.
Edge - Push
QBs - Giants Eli Manning vs. Packers Aaron Rodgers
Again, both have won Super Bowls. Rodgers is more consistent while Eli is more of a roller coaster ride. Eli has proven to be one of the best QBs in the league in clutch situation. But, Rodgers may be playing quarterback better than anyone has ever played the position. He finished the year with 45 TDs to just 6 INTs. That's insane. He also completed over 68% of his passes while averaging over 9 yards per attempt, the league's best by almost a full yard. Plus, which would you rather have, a guy like Rodgers who won a championship so he carries around a WWE-style championship belt like a bad-ass, or a weeny like Eli?
Edge - Packers
Defense - Statistically, neither team has a very good defense. Both finished in the bottom of the league in stopping the run, stopping the pass, and points allowed. But, both forced a lot of turnovers. So, this game is going to come down to which defense can force the other team's offense into making mistakes.
The Pick - Packers. I think it's much more likely that Eli has a stinker and throws some picks than it is that Rodgers will have a bad game.
Manly Man of the Week - Nick Hill
Who is Nick Hill? I'll tell you. He's a redshirt freshman running back from Michigan State University. He must've done something pretty awesome for the Spartans in the bowl win, right? Wrong. He was the team's starting kick returner, but that's about it. He's the Manly Man of the Week just for the
awesome tattoo he got. The Spartan running back got a bad-ass tattoo of one of the Spartans from the Movie "300" along the entire side of his body. The Spartans in that movie are manly men. Tattoos are for manly men. Therefore a huge tattoo of a "300" Spartan is super manly. I just hope he never transfers schools. That would be awkward.